Kelly Criterion - Keys to Bet Counting
Within the gambling history there have been a great number of players, who have tried to find particular techniques to win, whenever they wanted to. Not all of the efforts have turned out successful, of course, but there have been developed a number of strategies, which have later proved working at least in short-term games.
Among the most remarkable casino systems, applied in different games, the so-called Kelly criterion, or as it’s also called Kelly Bet is stated to be rather useful in the long run, although some experts still doubt such bright expectations of its devoted admirers.
Mathematics as a Basis
Having been initially described in Bell System Technical Journey by J.R. Kelly in 1956, Kelly criterion has soon got considerable popularity among the players, and is even now frequently used by players likewise often as Martingale system.
Kelly criterion is known to be based on the probability theory, and much because of its author’s mathematic approach to gambling, Kelly bet value can be easily depicted by a simple formulae:
- For simple bets: x=(bp-q)/b, where
x - a bet value;
b - presupposed odds of the particular bet (“b to 1”);
p - chances to win (0.65, for instance);
b - chances to lose (1 - p) (0.35, for example).
- For even-money bets: x=p - q, as the chances to lose b=1.
What is essential, it’s generally advised to bet less, than Kelly value, much because of the fact that when a person bets more, the chances to lose tend to grow, whereas the winning probability usually decreases.
Where to Try
As for the gaming options, where the above-described formula can be used, the options may differ greatly, from horse-racing bets to poker variations, though one should definitely study all the detailed information about Kelly criterion beforehand, in order not to get mislead during the game.
Fun is Still Essential
All things considered, despite the fact that Kelly criterion belongs to the group of more or less working casino systems, it’s always necessary to remember that there’s no exact evidence that it will work in all cases. Therefore, one should be always ready to accept the fact that losses happen as well, and it’s ok, unless the playing process itself loses its special charm.